Eur. J. Entomol. 115: 249-255, 2018 | DOI: 10.14411/eje.2018.024

Weather-dependent fluctuations in the abundance of the oak processionary moth, Thaumetopoea processionea (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae)Original article

György CSÓKA1, Anikó HIRKA1, Levente SZŐCS1, Norbert MÓRICZ2, Ervin RASZTOVITS2, Zoltán PÖDÖR3
1 NARIC Forest Research Institute, Department of Forest Protection, Hegyalja str. 18., 3232 Mátrafüred, Hungary; e-mails: csokagy@erti.hu, hirkaa@erti.hu, szocsl@erti.hu
2 NARIC Forest Research Institute, Department of Ecology and Silviculture, Paprét 17., 9400 Sopron, Hungary; e-mails: moriczn@erti.hu, rasztovitse@erti.hu
3 Institute of Informatics and Economics, Simonyi Károly Faculty of Engineering Wood Sciences and Applied Arts, University of Sopron, Bajcsy-Zsilinszky str. 9., 9400 Sopron, Hungary; e-mail: podor@inf.uni-sopron.hu

Population fluctuations of the well-known oak defoliator, the oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea L.), were studied using light trap data and basic meteorological parameters (monthly average temperatures, and precipitation) at three locations in Western Hungary over a period of 15 years (1988-2012). The fluctuations in the numbers caught by the three traps were strongly synchronized. One possible explanation for this synchrony may be similar weather at the three trapping locations. Cyclic Reverse Moving Interval Techniques (CReMIT) were used to define the period of time in a year that most strongly influences the catches. For this period, we defined a species specific aridity index for Thaumetopoea processionea (THAU-index). This index explains 54.8-68.9% of the variation in the yearly catches, which indicates that aridity, particularly in the May-July period was the major determinant of population fluctuations. Our results predict an increasing future risk of Oak Processionary Moth (OPM) outbreaks and further spread if the frequency of severe spring/summer droughts increases with global warming.

Keywords: Lepidoptera, Notodontidae, Thaumetopoea processionea, light trap, data mining, population fluctuation, Moran-effect, drought, oak defoliator, CReMIT-analysis

Received: September 26, 2017; Revised: May 9, 2018; Accepted: May 9, 2018; Published online: June 1, 2018  Show citation

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CSÓKA, G., HIRKA, A., SZŐCS, L., MÓRICZ, N., RASZTOVITS, E., & PÖDÖR, Z. (2018). Weather-dependent fluctuations in the abundance of the oak processionary moth, Thaumetopoea processionea (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae). EJE, 115, Article 249-255. https://doi.org/10.14411/eje.2018.024
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